Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Dayton Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economicxs professor at Wright State and authorf ofthe report, said unemployment increases will continue at theif accelerated pace into the third quarter of this year. The Dayton Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Greene, Miami and Preble counties, is projecte to lose 6,000 to 7,000 jobs in the thirdr quarter. That would drop employment to 373,900, down from 380,400 in the first quarter of the year, a 2 percent The hardest-hit area is one the Dayton area has longreliedr on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employment will fall substantially,” Traynor said.
Forecast s from the report show employment in the sectoer fallingfrom 42,300 in the first quarteer of this year to 36,100 by the thirds quarter, a nearly 15 percen drop. Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’t spending. They are waitinfg to buy a new car or thatnew appliance,” he Retail and service employment are also expected to Retail employment is expected to drop to 39,109 by the third quarter, down from 40,000o in the first quarter, a 2 percent Service employment, which includes financial service, business service, utilities and leisure service, is projected to decreas to 324,200 by the third quarter, down from 326,700 in the firsrt quarter, a nearly 1 percent “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasanrt time for the region,” Traynor said.
Construction employmenty is expected to rise as a part ofseasonak employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the firsty quarter, but that is 1,000 jobs fewer than the same time periodr last year. One area of employmeny that isn’t expected to be hit hard is healthy care. In fact, Traynor said he expectz health care to add some jobs by thethirc quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,300 in the firsy quarter. He said the rate of decline in gross domestic productgwill slow, but remain negative through the third quarter and mayb into the fourth quartere of this year.
Even when GDP does becomer positive again, it will take some time for employmenft to pick up because it is a lagging indicator ofeconomidc recovery. Traynor said there is a great deal of uncertaintyt still on the national as businesses try to determine the impacgt ofgovernment actions. Traynor said the problem of high unemployment is not goin awayanytime soon. “This is somethingv we’re going to be living with for quitsa while, well into next year,” he